This is a track record of all my publicly-disclosed predictions.


The best way to test your rationality skills is to apply them against the real world.

Skin in the game

To put my money where my mouth is, I will accept small P2P bets on some of my predictions (marked as “Bets: Accepting”). Sometimes I’ll use prediction markets or bookmakers. But I’m not a gambler and don’t want to become one, so I will do it rarely and judiciously.

I still need to figure out how to do this correctly and safely, so if you have some experience with this, please, share it with me.

You can use these results to tell everyone what a joke of a rationalist I’m and I hope my doctor will be able to use this list to detect an early onset of my cognitive impairment. Just don’t tell my mom I’m gambling, ok?

Pending (1/1)

2021-10-05: 45th President of the United States Donald J. Trump won’t ever be elected as the President of the United States again.
Confidence: 60%, Bets: Not accepting

Correct (0/1)

Hope I will only use this list 😏

Somewhat correct (0/1)

Predictions you can give me at least some credit for 😶

Wrong (0/1)

Hope this list won’t ever be started 😎